By Ibrahim Patel
Farmers across the world harvest record wheat crop for continuous two years following the year of high prices.
According to the international grain council, during the current year 700 million ton wheat crop likely to be marketed. Hedge funds and money managers have got such message from the conference held at Canberra (Australia) that if they holding three bearish bet for every bullish one in Chicago board of trade’s benchmark futures and
options markets. Aggressive sales by big exporters have pushed benchmark US wheat prices down more than 20 per cent this year to below $5 a bushel (27.218 Kilo).
Heavy weight exporters like the US, Canada, Russia, Australia, Argentina and Europe are competing to acquire share in the global market. The scenario in the global market has changed due to surplus stock, big upheaval in the currency market and imminent big stock of wheat crop. Price decline continuously which indicates that prospectus are bright for new crop in every exporting country. Such exporting countries are vying with each other to acquire market share.
Strong dollar has made the US Wheat nowhere. Its export during the current year is likely to decline by 25% as per the estimate of USDA. Once, the US was controlling 25% of global trade of wheat. Now its share has declined to 15%. As the currencies of other contries have weakened, the defeat of the US has become the victory of
others. During the current year, Canada would usurp the sharp of the US by exporting the same quantity of wheat as that of the US. The traders of the Kansas, the biggest wheat producing state of the US, say that we aren’t in the competition with the global market.
During the last month the global grain trader Bunge and a Saudi Arabia investment company have acquired the maximum monopoly of the Canadian wheat. Due to weakened Euro against Dollar and increasing proximity of Europe with the Middle East counties, Europe would get an opportunity to export record wheat with bumper crop harvesting during the current year. An American company has completely controlled the export terminal at the opening of Danube River the route through which grain including wheat exported from Romania, Bulgaria, Siberia, and Hungary passed. Ukraine would export 11.7 million ton wheat during the current year, which would be highest since 2007-08.
During current year, Russia would enter the global market with 21 million ton wheat crop. Following the dominance of black sea countries increased in the grain market 2 years ago, United Nations institute FAO was compelled to say that Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have been included in the list of “bulk wheat export category” composing of 5 members i.e. the US European union, Canada, Australia and Argentina. A decade ago, all these countries were considered as new comer in the market. As per the official data such forecast has been made that during the current year, Australi would export 17 million ton wheat, the lowest since last 5 years.
[Courtesy - www.commoditydna.com]
Ibrahim Patel is well-experienced commodity & currency expert. He has writing experience in the field since 35 years. He is working in Sandesh Gujarati newspaper and also editor of www.commoditydna.com. He had vast experience in analysis of trends in comodity markets in Vyapar, a commercial newspaper from Mumbai.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]