China's elderly dependency ratio overtakes children's for the first time

China's working-age population is now supporting more older people than children for the first time, according to National Bureau of Statistics data reported by the BBC and The Straits Times.

The BBC reported that the old-age dependency ratio, which compares the elderly population with people of working age, reached 23% in 2025. The Straits Times carried a Reuters report citing state-affiliated outlet Yicai, and that report gave the figure as 23.1%. Both outlets put the ratio for children at 22%. According to The Straits Times, the elderly ratio was 15% in 2016 and passed 20% in 2021.

The data show more than 223 million people aged 65 and above and about 213 million children aged 14 and under. The BBC said older people now make up nearly 16% of the total population.

The BBC said no official commentary came with the release. The state-controlled Global Times said the nation's "entry into a moderately ageing society" came from factors including the size of past birth cohorts and longer life expectancy. The paper said the change could put more strain on pension, healthcare and long-term care systems. It also said the change could open opportunities in the "silver economy" serving older consumers.

Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology told the BBC the shift was "symbolic". He said it could mean public spending moves away from families and schools and towards pensions and healthcare. Mu Zheng, a sociology lecturer at the National University of Singapore, said it could limit economic growth and people's spending power.

Both outlets linked the ageing to rapid urbanisation and to the one-child policy, which was in force from 1980 to 2015. The Straits Times said China's population fell for a fourth straight year in 2025 as the birth rate dropped to a record low. Mu said changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels had also pushed fertility down.

The Straits Times reported that authorities have brought in family subsidies, childcare support and lower childbirth-related medical costs to encourage marriage and childbearing. According to the BBC, more than 53 million older people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025. The BBC also said further support for older people is part of the five-year economic blueprint announced earlier this year.

Gietel-Basten also questioned the measure itself. He said relying on the dependency ratio risks "taking agency away" from older people, many of whom he said have been misrepresented as dependants. He added that the ratio does not take account of improvements in healthcare.

Sources: BBC News, China's families are now supporting more old people than kids; The Straits Times, China’s old-age dependency ratio overtakes children for first time.