China's trade surplus tops US$1 trillion in 10 months as AI demand lifts exports

China's trade surplus reached US$1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, as global spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure drove demand for Chinese high-tech goods, according to customs data published on Tuesday and reported by The Straits Times, CNA and The Hindu.

Exports rose 35.2 per cent in October from a year earlier in US dollar terms. The Straits Times and CNA, carrying Reuters reporting, said that was a little slower than September's 36.3 per cent but above economists' forecast of 33.5 per cent. Imports jumped 41.6 per cent against a median forecast of 32 per cent. The Hindu, citing the General Administration of Customs, put October exports at US$412.3 billion and imports at US$307.1 billion. Oil imports fell 13.3 per cent, though The Straits Times said volumes were the highest since March after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies.

It is the second year in a row the surplus has passed US$1 trillion, and it got there a month sooner than in 2025, when the mark was reached in November. The Hindu said China is on track to exceed last year's record of US$1.2 trillion.

The Hindu said the AI demand covered computer chips, data centre servers and networking equipment. Macquarie analysts, quoted by The Straits Times and CNA, wrote that "the outlook for exports depends on how long the AI boom will last". They expect growth to quicken in the fourth quarter and slow from the first quarter of 2027. Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management told The Hindu: "I expect they will continue to perform well in the foreseeable future."

Europe is a growing point of friction. The Hindu reported China's surplus with the EU was US$310.7 billion from January to October, up from US$241.6 billion a year earlier. Last month EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic and Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao agreed to limit hybrid vehicle exports to Europe. Because those limits are not yet in force, factories are expected to bring shipments forward, The Straits Times and CNA said. "The risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers will remain elevated in 2027," said Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China.

At home, consumers are still holding back amid a long property slump. Domestic vehicle sales fell for a 12th straight month in October while car exports kept growing, industry data cited by the Singapore outlets showed. The Hindu said inflation remains well short of the official target of around 2 per cent and that Beijing is leaning on exports to reach its 2026 growth target of 4.5 to 5.0 per cent.

The outlets gave differing pictures of trade with the United States. The Hindu reported exports to the US rose 32.9 per cent in October, while The Straits Times said China's surplus with the US eased to US$32.71 billion from US$34.01 billion in September. On Monday China announced a two-month extension of its trade truce with Washington, which was due to expire on November 10.

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, which The Hindu said runs from November 18 to 19 and could include trilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Sources: The Straits Times, China's trade surplus soars past $1 trillion as AI boom powers exports; CNA, China's trade surplus soars past US$1 trillion as AI boom powers exports; The Hindu, China says 2026 trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in October.