Chris v Chris: New Zealand votes with polls pointing to coalition talks
Voting closes at 5pm AEDT on Saturday. Surveys suggest neither Christopher Luxon's National nor Chris Hipkins' Labour can govern alone.
New Zealanders vote in a general election on Saturday that polls suggest is too close to call. Voting ends at 7pm local time, which is 5pm AEDT. SBS News reported that more than 1.4 million votes had already been cast in advance voting by the middle of election week.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leader of the centre-right National Party, is seeking a second term at the head of his coalition government. His opponent is Chris Hipkins, leader of the centre-left Labour Party. Hipkins became prime minister in January 2023 after Jacinda Ardern resigned and lost office at the election that October.
The final polls do not agree. SBS reported that a Post-Freshwater Strategy poll released on Friday had Labour slightly ahead but gave no clear result. An Infrastructure New Zealand poll, also released on Friday, put Labour on 30.7 per cent and National on 26.4 per cent. A Roy Morgan poll in October gave the centre-right bloc of National, ACT and NZ First a narrow lead over Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
The Post-Freshwater poll had the centrist Opportunity Party on 5.1 per cent, just over the 5 per cent party vote parties generally need to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat. The party says it will work with either side. SBS said it could become a kingmaker if it gets in.
Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system, parliament usually has 120 seats. Seventy-one come from electorates, seven of them Māori electorates, and the rest are allocated by party vote. Every government since the system was introduced in 1996 has relied on smaller parties, apart from Ardern's Labour government elected in 2020. SBS reported that results in the Māori electorates could also affect coalition talks.
The BBC reported that the rising cost of living is a main concern for voters. SBS said unemployment has risen to 5.7 per cent, its highest level in 11 years, and growth has been sluggish. Health care and housing affordability have also featured. Luxon has campaigned on returning the budget to surplus and expanding the KiwiSaver retirement scheme, after surviving two confidence votes from National MPs this year. Hipkins has promised cost of living relief and investment in housing, infrastructure and health care.
Māori rights have also been debated during the campaign. The coalition has rolled back several policies giving Māori more representation in public decision-making, and ACT has proposed abolishing the Waitangi Tribunal.
The Straits Times, carrying a Reuters report, said the Electoral Commission will start releasing figures shortly after polls close and expects preliminary results from half of voting places by 10pm. The commission sets strict rules on what can be reported on Saturday until voting ends. SBS said forming a government could take days or weeks of negotiation. Official results, including special votes such as overseas ballots, will be declared on November 27.
Sources: SBS News, Chris v Chris: What to know about New Zealand's tightly-wedged election; BBC News, Chris vs Chris: Who's running and what's at stake this New Zealand election; The Straits Times, New Zealanders vote in general election.
